The counterrevolutionary offensive of the Armed Forces High Command (ACFA), which is turned nine, lost the initiative after the disastrous rod of January 8, 2023, the further now with the advancement of investigations. The Armed Forces lost much of the “legitimacy” that so much were arident to possess due to their achievements during the Bolsonaro government, in fact criminal harm to the people and the nation, because they came to light many of their scammer conspiracy. In addition, his image of “holy and pure” institution, “incorruptible”, had already crumbled, when monthly complaints of overpricing arose in his supply, brutal inequality of the squares and low officers compared to the high office, not to mention The willful administration of the Covid-19 pandemic. But why has the counter -revolutionary offensive of the ACFA has more unfavorable ground?
When the then army commander Eduardo Villas-Bôas (representative of the hegemonic right in the ACFA) said in 2017 that “ The Armed Forces must be silent protagonists so that society knows that the crisis will not exceed certain limits ”And launched the consignments of“ legitimacy, stability, legality ”Was establishing a military intervention plan. All the concerns and scenarios thought by the ACFA were centered on two aspects: on the one hand, it was necessary to centralize reactionary institutions by making them work under a unique reactionary plan formulated by them, to face a scenario of popular upheaval; On the other hand, it was necessary to submit such institutions as much as possible, without shocking the legal order, without seeming a military coup, not to generate a resistance of the majority of society and even from other institutions, which would eventually lose space in political power. It was the Armed Forces Intervention Plan in National Political Life to prevent the worsening of the revolutionary situation, which had again developed from the 2013-14 popular uprisings. In this plan, an institutional rupture would only be justifiable in the latter case; Or, in the words of Villas-Bôas and other so-called “legalistic generals” (read, the hegemonic right in the ACFA): the institutional rupture would only be in case of what it calls for “social crisis”, to safeguard the “constituted powers” . A disguised blow, in short, that would only come out of the disguise in the extreme case.
The movements of the far-right Bolsonarist, seeking to dispute the direction of the counterrevolutionary offensive and precipitate the institutional rupture, generated such a situation that today the reactionary armed forces were again unmasked as essentially coup. Investigations publicly brought all the rottenness of the Armed Forces, all the elements of the coup preparations, showing that - yes - Brazil has been to a wire to return to a military regime, whatever its outcome, and that this is not “ from past".
Let's look at the practical result of the ACFA right plane. This, which intended to conduct military intervention gradually to remove from the Supreme Court what it considered an excess of power, today is investigated by a much more strengthened STF, which concentrates more functions than before. Congress, which according to the ACFA plan should have less power and functions, today has control not only about the country's political agenda, but of the most important part of the budget itself; Congress has never been so powerful. Today, culminating military intervention with the closure of the regime by force to try to combat a popular or revolutionary survey will produce a ten -time resistance of various segments of society, including right and reactionaries; A military coup “to safeguard the constituted powers” is much less justifiable today than it was in 2017, even to the traditional right. All institutions, which according to the plane of the ACFA should be centralized, have become even more ambitious in its Pugna by political power: the STF “run over” Congress and it wants to submit to itself the STF; The Chamber of Deputies “run over” Federal Senate; The National Congress controls the federal government etc. Consequently, the political crises, the tendency to the system of government, the unmasking of political characters in the masses and the growth of the discredit of the institutions, in front of the people grow, the tendency of the people. It all leads to the intensification of the struggle between the classes, the worsening of the revolutionary situation that ACFA, in 2015, intended to placate, when his offensive offensive disgusting preventive.
Despite maintaining a high vigilance against coup - as it is not defeated strategically, it is not even conjured in the short term - it must be recognized that the path to military intervention is more unfavorable. To “turn the table”, the Generals of the High Command will have to pay much more expensive than they would pay, for example, in 2017. This is the main one. There is no doubt that the situation for the popular and revolutionary struggle has become even more favorable.