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Ukraine's possible defeat will highlight the weaknesses of Western mechanisms. And this is something that exacerbates a sense of strategic impasse, especially for European imperialists.
The situation on the Ukrainian front is such that it no longer dictates scenarios for the evolving conflict, but for the next day. Having Moscow the initiative of movement, the agonizing question is not where it will stop, but where it wants to stop. The centers of the West estimate, and justified, that its goals are no longer limited to the border of the four provinces attached.
European (if) security has many versions and varied events. Recently, the timeliness has been monopolized by Macron's threats (lionism), which begin with the "bomb" statement that NATO forces should not be ruled out to Ukraine.
It didn't take much time since June 2022, when Macron stated: ' I am convinced that the role of France is that of a mediating force "! Today, despite his ambiguities and old -fashioned, he constantly throws oil on the fire ... " We are not in a straight conflict with Russia but we cannot let her win », « We are not in war with Russia, but it is waging war against us », « If Russia wins this war, Europe's credibility will be reduced to zero »Etc. For Moscow, such a demonstration of power (albeit rhetoric) by the head of the French state, in addition to a type of bluff, can be considered a "trolley" of Western intentions.
However, Macron's anti -Russian bids may have other extensions. The bourgeoisie has seen its "credibility" decrease in recent years in a traditional sphere of influence: West Africa. Whether the eastern edge of Europe can be a compensatory field of action of French imperialism is very doubtful. However, more or less, Macron tells the countries of A. Europe that France does not have the suspensions of Germany and is willing (and capable?) To replace US guarantees at national or even European level! This intention was updated at the recent trilateral German, France and Poland summit in Berlin.
For his part, German Chancellor Saltz, after clarifying that countries supporting Ukraine are not in war with Russia, was sufficient in Brussels' declarations regarding Europe's help to Ukraine. Is the issue to what extent it controls its three -party government? In the extreme pro -Nursery and anti -Russian statements by Foreign Ministry Berbok (Greens), Germany's Minister of Education Vacinger (Liberals) were added, who, in an interview with the Funke Group newspapers, proposes the preparation of the students (in the context of the pupils). War ... it even imagines it as part of everyday life!
There are not many. Or the West will move towards a complete conflict with Russia or try to halt it by negotiations, mitigating any costs. If the second is true (which does not mean the immediate end of the war), the terms will basically be dictated by Moscow. It is obvious that both sides do not approach a ceasefire in Ukraine in the same way. It is not only that this should start with the acceptance of the new borders and the consolidation of any acquisitions, but they should also respond to their long -term strategic goals. In such a scenario it is estimated that the Russian delegation will reach the table with a sense of strategic advantage. For the Kremlin it is a key condition that the negotiations will not define a new "frozen conflict" or "a break for Ukraine re -equipment".
The Russian president (who was not particularly struggling for his re -election) does not seem to put the consultations on the forefront. In his public festive speech (on his election victory and the anniversary of Crimea's attachment), he reiterated warnings to the West for the use of nuclear in any "official" development of Western troops in Ukrainian territories. These Putin warnings are not made in the void. The background is long -term and the controversy exceeds the borders of Ukraine. It became clear by Russia that a possible West-Russia negotiation would not be limited to its "territorial" as its future neutrality and demilitarization. And may require safeguards concerning all A. Europe
In the estimation of Western analysts, it appears that the US would be enough for Russia to leave Ukraine without other territorial conquests. Putin's appeal is considered to be the dismissal of Nuland, number 3 to the State Department, with a field of responsibility in Ukraine for at least ten years. However, this action could also be considered an indirect assumption of Russia's achievements in Ukraine!
All of this reflect fears of the correlations that are going to be shaped, as developments, and the uncertain of their end in both the battlefields in Ukraine but also gauze as well as throughout the Middle East. There are uncertain parameters that form an unprecedented situation, raising more issues of re -evaluation of imperialist relations. A state of fine balances, reflecting the interests of the dominant imperialists both peripheral and the world stage as a whole.
A situation that, highlighting its multifaceted dynamics, may be the reason for the inevitable and violent adjustment of US strategies and priorities. A situation where "continued politics by other means" will tend to become a rule.
XB