In the process of translation and publication dissemination in the world and in Italy by the International Support Committee of the Popular War in India (ICSPWI) info csgpindia@gmail.com

Election Boycott Circular by Communist Party of India (Maoist) - diffused by ICSPWI

The EU is the edifice of the imperialists

It is an instrument of exploitation, occupation and oppression of workers and peoples

It is a bastion of racism and war

Out of the European Parliament, against the EU is the way of workers and peoples!

Abstention from the European elections!

The elections for the European Parliament in May-June will take place in a period of multiple-level attack on the rights of the peoples of Europe and furthermore in a period of war and bloody conflicts on the European continent.

In all previous years, the dominant imperialist powers in the European Union have consolidated the exploitation and plundering of the peoples and workers in the countries of Europe. Extreme austerity policies have been implemented, the poor and middle classes have been squeezed with salary cuts and the attack on their labour rights, and the peasants have seen the onset of the CAP policy that targets them. Youth continued to be at the centre of the attack with European policies striking at studies and labour rights; additionally, not only did the Bologna policies not bring better days for young people studying, but it worsened the conditions of studying and even forced many students to abandon education. Working youth, poor working class youth, those living on the fringes of poverty, migrants and “second-class citizens” as they are called, have been dealt a severe blow. On one hand they were the first to accept the measures of cuts and austerity; on the other hand they saw their democratic rights being overturned.

In all the developments of recent years, the EU is once again emerging as a force that supports and participates in unjust wars, a force responsible for the slaughter of peoples. The unjust war in Ukraine, apart from the stamp of the imperialists of Russia and the USA, also bears the stamp of EU’s intervention and support of fascist and far-right groups. At the same time, the ongoing ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian people has the support of the forces of the European Union. The repression and the ban on the mobilizations of solidarity to the Palestinian people is the primary direction of the EU countries. The decision of the European Parliament -by an overwhelming majority- to recognise "Israel's right to self-defence" while there is a prolonged massacre in Gaza of a people living for years under the occupation of the fascist state of Israel is an obvious example of how democratic and humanitarian the EU edifice is. It is clear that solidarity with the Palestinian people and the struggle for freedom in Palestine means abstaining from the war-mongering EU edifice and abstaining from the European elections.

The policies of extreme racism, the rise of far-right parties in the countries of the European Union and in the European Parliament are supported by and underpin the reactionary, racist and anti-communist policies of the main systemic forces. New forces have emerged and old forces have been strengthened, which represent the extremes of capitalism, exploitation and social, ethnic, religious, cultural and gender discrimination. All this ideological and political offensive that has proceeded in parallel with the attack on the rights and conquests of decades was necessary for the imperialist bourgeoisies of the EU. It was needed to put the workers and the oppressed in the spotlight and put the blame for the ongoing crisis on them. These far-right and fascist policies not only do not oppose the EU but are its “flesh and blood”. This is the political perception of the capitalist imperialist system which manifests itself when it is in crisis or in danger.

At the same time, the pandemic crisis and the outbreak of SARS-Covid 19, although initially did create a problem for the production process and the capitalist system as a whole, turned into an opportunity for an additional attack through anti-worker and anti- peoples laws.

The myth of “Europe of the peoples”, of the social-human face of the European Union is now showing its true face. The face of war, exploitation and barbarism. The face of imperialism-capitalism which is only interested in the reproduction of its profits and its political supremacy over its opponents. It is obvious to anyone who wants to see it that a handful of imperialist countries are running the EU. They are promoting the exploitation of the bourgeoisie against all the other peoples’ and working classes and at the same time they are squeezing the wealth out of the remaining dependent countries. This is the reality of the European Union. A union dominated by contradictions and antagonism, a union that is doomed to fail.

This rotten and exploitative edifice also needs the semblance of democracy to be sold to the people. It needs the European Parliament to work to disorientate the people and convince them that it can be changed and fixed. But the truth is that the European Parliament is a puppet without any meaningful and decisive functions, a spectacle set up to deceive the peoples of Europe and to distract them from their struggle. It is a “greenhouse” where the system's lobbies grow, in which the only thing the so-called MEPs obey to is the “money bags” available to the capitalists to promote their interests inside and outside the EU.

We support the struggles of the peoples and workers. These are the struggles that the governments of the EU countries are bashing and vilifying. We support the strikes that broke out in France for the right of the people to a pension they can live with, the strikes of transport workers in Germany and Spain. We support the struggles of the peasants like recently in France and Greece. The continuation and the path towards justice for the workers' and peoples’ struggles does not go through the acceptance of the miserable illusions about the European Parliament and the EU. The working peoples’ mobilizations are the hope for a better future for the workers and peoples of Europe.

The way of the peoples is outside the European Parliament and against the EU, a way of solidarity and fellowship. For a life with rights and gains against imperialism and exploitation. A life that can only be won by a COMMON FRONT of the peoples against this barbaric and reactionary alliance of imperialists and capitalists.

All of us who sign this document, left and communist organizations, refuse to legitimate the operation of embellishment of a historically reactionary imperialist construct. We refuse to participate in a farcical and mockery process like that of the European elections. We call for mass abstention from the European elections and actively fight to bring the working peoples’ movements to the forefront of the struggles. We call on the peoples of Europe not to vote in the European elections as they are a farce, and become active subjects in the struggle against the policies of the European Union. We call on democrats and progressive people to put a stop to the war-mongering policies supported by the European Union that have brought war in our neighbourhood. We are fighting to get our countries out of the EU edifice. We support the right of peoples to fight and struggle for their rights, for a society without exploitation and wars. We call for mass abstention from the European elections and for mass and active participation in the peoples’ struggles.

• NO TO THE EUROPEAN UNION OF CAPITALISTS AND IMPERIALISTS!

• ABSTENTION FROM THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS!

• DOWN WITH THE ANTI-WORKER POLICIES OF AUSTERITY AND SOCIAL BARBARISM!

• INTERNATIONALIST–ANTI-IMPERIALIST–CLASS FRONT OF EUROPEAN WORKERS AND PEOPLES AGAINST WAR, RACISM AND FASCISM!

A campaign has been launched international action from 6

March to 6 April for liberation of the political prisoner

Revolutionary Georges Abdallah locked up in prisons

of French imperialism, a campaign that we relaunch in our

village.

There Struggle for his liberation is the same struggle for liberation

from the Zionism and imperialism of the Palestinian people

excerpts of the appeal for a month of international action for the liberation of Georges Abdallah!

Below is his declaration

.... from 8 June a new phase has opened in the long battle conducted by its supporters for its liberation: while the mobilization on the field, in the diversity of its expressions, continues to grow, Georges Abdallah has agreed to launch a new one Legal offensive through presenting a tenth request for liberation-expulsion towards its country, Lebanon. We support with ours

It is in this sense and taking into account this new phase that we once again ask for an international month of action for the release of Georges Abdallah from 6 March to 6 April 2024, the date of the 14th event in front of the Lannemezan penitentiary center. They can coordinate in this time to bloom throughout France and internationally a thousand initiatives for its liberation and therefore for its struggle in solidarity with the historic Palestine!

Declaration of Georges Abdallah, political prisoner in France, read in Marseille on February 25, 2024.

Dear friends, dear companions,

For over four and a half months, the Palestinian people, through all its social and political components, have been facing a massive genocidal aggression to Gaza and military operations no less deadly in the West Bank, where supremacy colonists and soldiers of the employment army abandon themselves daily to the worst excesses, with the aim of intensifying colonization and making life conditions unbearable for the majority of popular masses.

Arbitrary arrests, killings of activists, destruction of houses and other abuses are becoming increasingly the daily fate of all the Palestinians in the West Bank.

Of course, the imperialist states of the West lift, in one way or another, with the Zionist entity, orchestrale a propaganda campaign, justifying and supporting this criminal Zionist war, denigrating the main forces that oppose it all day And, above all, criminalizing here any initiative to support the struggle of the Palestinian popular masses and their fighters' avant -garde.

The imperialist bourgeoisie of this country, just as he celebrates the entry to the Panthéon of a heroic figure of the anti -fascist resistance (Missak Manuchian, Ndt), invokes, with all the shame, the "right of self -defense" of the occupant Zionist in the face of the Resistance of the Palestinian national movement.

Few voices in social -democratic intelligence remind the system guard dogs that the colonialist occupant has no legitimacy. The occupation and the army of employment, with everything that brings with it, are completely illegitimate. On the other hand, the occupant resistance in all its forms is the most legitimate and noble expression of the "right of peoples to self -determination".

Of course, it is very difficult to conceive this legitimacy when a special place has been preserved in your head for Marshal Pétain or for another no less execrable Marshal Bugeaud ...

Having said that, dear friends and companions, perhaps it would be useful to remember that active international solidarity is an indispensable weapon in the fight against the colonization of Palestine and the genocidal war that is intimately linked to it. It is on the basis of this active solidarity that we can participate in the change of strength relationships here, in the belly of the imperialist beast, and elsewhere, in the process of building the "historical social block", a global and potential subject of the national liberation movement.

Of course, not ignored that it was thanks to your active and solidarity mobilization that the "power agents" of capital have been forced to sell and revoke the ban on manifesting in solidarity with the Palestinian people.

In other words, despite the entire process of fascisting in progress in this country, the simple fact of mobilizing in solidarity on the international scene contributes, in a sense, to the strengthening of the "convergence of struggles" and to the structuring of the "historical social blockade "In view of taking his role as an active political subject.

If the imperialist bourgeoisie celebrates in these days the Pantheonization of Manouchian immediately after approving the "immigration law", it is because it mainly tries to erase and bury the values embodied by the struggle and martyrdom of all resistance fighters as a hand.

Dear friends, dear companions, from the beginning of the twentieth century to today, the Palestinian people have never stopped fighting the Zionist in settlement project. Several decades of struggle, sacrifice and suffering have shaped the Palestinian identity up to the marrow. The thousands of martyrs and prisoners and the hundreds of refugees in the fields, in Palestine and in the neighboring countries, have contributed to considerably complicating the existential conditions of the Palestinian people and consequently the objective conditions of its resistance.

In fact, it is only in the general framework of this "historical resistance" that the construction of the anti -medical political subject flourish and bloom, and it is precisely in this context that we can better grasp the dynamic articulation of its components and the various factors that structure the "will collective "to promote the anti -colonial, anti -medical and anti -imperialist action.

It is only in light of all this that today we can understand why "Palestine can only win", despite what at first glance appears as a huge imbalance in strength relationships: on the one hand there is the Zionist entity, organic extension of Western imperialism, and on the other the Palestinian popular masses who, for more than a century, have been people and continue to do so today, in the dynamics of a struggle whose place in play goes far beyond the boundaries of historical Palestine.

These people, who had to take the tasks historically due to all the Arab masses, in particular to those of the Arabic mashrek, found himself for more than a century in the grip of a particular type of colonial settlement, which prevented him from being socially being structured, Like any other population of the region, through the dialectic of the class struggle in a traditional way of colonial production.

These people defeated the entire colonial settlement policy implemented for over a century by the Zionist expression of the imperialist West. The ethnic cleaning of the land of Palestine and its indomitable inhabitants is more than a failure. More than half of the Palestinian people live today in historical Palestine.

The Zionist movement has never succeeded and will never be able to break the unshakable will of Palestinian women and men, young and old, to conduct the struggle on all fronts to free Palestine, all of Palestine. It is this historical resistance, deeply rooted in the collective memory, which constantly revives the Palestinian identity.

Dear friends, dear companions, despite the genocidal aggression on a massive scale against Gaza of these days, in which the tens and tens of thousands of martyrs and injuries have been added to the terrible widespread destruction of the entire living space of Gaza, the resistance remains Unexable, protected and embraced by popular masses.

Gaza will never bring the white flag of the surrender ... neither the Zionists nor any criminal force will ever be able to break the will of the resistance to Gaza.

We must never forget that it is from the bowels of these refugee camps in Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan and Lebanon that the historic Palestinian fighter force has emerged: the Fedayyìn. Today more than ever, this resistance to the genocidal aggression is alive and brings the promise of the Fedayyin.

That a thousand solidarity initiatives flourish in support of Palestine and its promising resistance!

Solidarity, all solidarity, with resistants in Zionist prisons and in isolation in Morocco, Turkey, Greece, Philippines and elsewhere in the world!

Solidarity, all solidarity, to young proletarians in popular neighborhoods!

Capitalism is nothing but barbarism, honor to all those who oppose there in the diversity of their expressions!

Together friends and companions, only together we will win!

Palestine will live and Palestine will surely win!

To all of you, companions and friends, my warmest revolutionary greeting.

Current situation: Notes on the world crisis (7. Two years of the war of aggression of Russian imperialism to Ukraine .- Update of attached annexes and more underlined comments)

1. In Ukraine, Russia progresses little by little after death, The San Juan Daily Star.

2. Center for Strategic and International Studies TRANSCRIPT, Event: “Ukraine in the balance: an update of the battlefield on the war In Ukraine "

We publish these two news as annexes, which are very vinvulated to be able to make a closer idea in the war front between the Russian imperialist invader and the forces of the Ukrainian national resistance.

We have underlined the 1 and 2, and we will comment more widely later.

Today we publish transcription Complete of the Center for Strategic and International Studies “Ukraine in the Balance: A Battlefield Update on the war in ukraine ”, which last Friday we publish them incomplete, we also made the mistake of consigning the CSIS as a Yankee Imperialism Institute, when it is from English imperialism As can be seen at the UK publication, this is the kingdom United. We lohico with the rush of time, because we consider that It was very important that our readers conceive, in the opinion of The military and security experts of Yankee imperialism, such as They are Eliot Cohen, former state department advisor, Emily Harding, An intelligence expert of the SCIS that was previously CIA, of the US National Security Council, etc., and Mike Vickers, former Undersecretary of Defense Intelligence, Operations Officer of the CIA.

The importance of the document is that contains the discussion between these experts that represent the interests of one of the factions of Yankee imperialism, that of current Biden government and PD, on how the development of the War from its beginning to date, the stages that according to them carry Tour, until you reach the current moment of the War of positions, With the different terrestrial, aerial and naval bells, where they show the successes and failures, the strengths and weak, etc. From both part, the symbolic importance of the taking of Avdiivka For political development in Russia, linked to the death of Levany, and its limited military value. Make an interesting comparison between 1914 and 2023, where They see great potential for instability and innovation on both sides In this war, his appreciation of the Naval Campana of the Ukraine It is important.

See how Imperialists focus on their "help" military to impose dependence on the Ukrainian nation, that is get through the back door, while the Ukrainian nation combat the invasion of the aggressive forces of Russian imperialism. I know there reveals his cynicism, when he recognizes that with this "help" They win are their own companies, they say:

„(…) The money we spend on Ukraine does not leave the United States to the defense industry of the USA .. You go to US companies that send help to Ukraine. The Vast majority of this stay here. ”

That is double gain.

The interests of the government Imperialist Yankee of Biden are expressed in the opinions of these experiences, among many others, when they talk about the meaning of this War, etc. The statements of the representatives of all imperialist countries regarding war, in terms of "help", sending of armament and threat of being used has or seeks to have an effect on the opinion of the countries involved, in the elections and internal political development , because as reads the second annex and the news about the conversations of German ocial Mass destruction, including the military. Of its proopias conditions and possibility. Especially of the strategic balance at the level of those weapons of the Russian and Yankees imperialists.

Well, above all this we will return more forward. But, we reiterate in reference to the two annexes, in our position on the development of contradictions in this War of aggression of Russian imperialism against the nation Ukraine, in which the main contradiction is oppressed nation Against Russian imperialist aggression war. Than the imperialists In their wars against oppressed nations they can only Coquisote failures and get engaged in the quagmire. That he Yankee Emprialism is the fat dog and the main enemy of the Peoples of the world and Russian imperialism is the skinny dog, such as Aggressive imperialism in Ukraine is the main enemy there.

We publish two annexes, one is from a newspaper of The USA and, the other, of a Yankee Imperialism Research Center:

1. In Ukraine, Russia advances little by little after Death, The San Juan Daily Star.

2. Center for Strategic and International Studies Transcript, event: “Ukraine in the balance: a update of the battlefield on war in Ukraine "

In Ukraine, Russia advances little by little after death

·

o The San Juan Daily Star

2 days ago

§

Members of a humanitarian group transport the body from a Russian military near Koroviy Yar, in the Donetsk region in Ukraine, the January 7, 2023. Russia has made several adjustments after a disastrous year, but it still seems much more comfortable absorbing large losses of troops and team, even to achieve small profits. (Nicole Tung/The New York Times)

Por Thomas Gibbons-Neff Y Anatoly Kur

When the Russian army launched its offensive against the Avdiivka City, in eastern Ukraine, the past fall, the troops Ukrainians noticed a change in their tactics as column after column of Russian forces were devastated by artillery fire.

Russian forces divided their formations of infantry in smaller units to avoid being bombarded, while The number of Russian air attacks increased to demolish the defenses of the city.

It was one of several adjustments made by the Russians to help reverse your luck after a disastrous first year. But this changes were obscured by an obvious fact: the Russian army still I was much more willing to absorb great losses in troops and equipment, even to get small profits.

Russian forces have a different pain threshold, This month said a senior western official, as well as an unorthodox vision of what is considered an acceptable level of military losses .

Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers have result injured or dead from the beginning of the Russian in large scale, including tens of thousands last year in the Battle for the Eastern City from Bakhmut. Another city to the south, Marinka, fell into the hands of Russia in January, After intense fighting and more losses .

Avdiivka was one of the most expensive. The diverse Russian casual estimates that circulate among military analysts, bloggers Prorruse and Ukrainian officials suggest that Moscow lost more troops Taking Avdiivka that in 10 years of fighting in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

But the figures of victims are difficult to verify: they are inflated on the side that causes them and minimized on the side that suffers them, which leaves the real cost unknown. The figure is considered Officer of Soviet dead in Afghanistan, around 15,000, is very underestimated.

An outstanding military blogger wrote that the Russians They had lost 16,000 soldiers in Avdiivka, a figure that follows for now being impossible to confirm.

"Despite Russia's great losses in Avdiivka, they still have an advantage of personnel along the front and can Continue attacks in multiple directions, "said Rob Lee, principal researcher of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, with Headquarters in Philadelphia.

Russia's slow advance occurs when European nations take measures to reinforce support for Ukraine and strengthen His own protections against a possible Russian aggression . Monday, NATO exceeded the last obstacle to passing the membership of Sweden, less than a year after Finland joined, an expansion of the military alliance that challenges the hopes of President Vladimir Putin of Russia to fracture the unity of their adversaries.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine said the Sunday that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died fighting Russia. Their Comments caught the attention for how rare they were; Participants in the War almost never reveal casualties. But most analysts and Western officials say that the number of victims is much higher.

From the beginning of the invasion, Russia has been willing to pay especially high cost to advance in the area of the East of Ukraine known as Donbas, where Avdiivka is located . Parts of This traditionally Russian -speaking region has been occupied by representatives of Russia since 2014, and trying to justify the invasion of Large scale, the Kremlin has falsely affirmed that he is defending his Russian speakers, saying they want to be part of Russia.

Some military analysts say that taking control Total of the DonBass is the minimum that the Russian government needs to present the invasion of Ukraine as a house victory. That may explain Moscow's will of absorbing enormous losses to achieve marginal advances .

Avdiivka has been strategic and symbolic for Russian war propaganda Due to its proximity to Donetsk, the city more Grande del DonBass, who has been under the occupation backed by Russia since 2014. Ensure Avdiivka would take the Ukrainian artillery of the city, reducing the civilian population. Low and pressure on supply lines rear.

Kremlin's propensity to shoot more projectiles, concentrate more people and rely on a much larger and capable air force on This war allowed him to gradually change the course against the deep Defenses of Ukraine in Avdiivka. The huge cost in injured and dead, they say Some analysts, was only the byproduct of a strategy that he achieved in great measured its objective, despite the loss of men and material, especially When Western military aid and Ukrainian ammunition decreased subsequently.

The latest for now.

A Russian military analyst close to the industry of Defense, Ruslan Pukhov, wrote last week that the assault on Avdiivka was part of a broader Russian strategy of pressing the Ukrainian forces to throughout the entire line of the 600 mile front with attacks and probes for exhaust the enemy "for a thousand cuts."

" This strategy, however, is enough expensive for Russian armed forces in terms of losses, which could lead to the exhaustion of your forces "Pukhov wrote in a magazine Russian current. " This, in turn, could give the Ukrainian part once plus the initiative ”.

However, most analysts are issuing sobering evaluations about Ukraine's perspectives to 2024 If you do not receive American help. As the war enters its third year, both sides struggle to find enough men to Continue fighting with the same level of intensity. The much greater population of Russia, around 144 million people, three times that of Ukraine, It gives a significant advantage in labor.

The magnitude of Russia's losses has annulled in part of the impact of this arithmetic.

Kremlin's decision to summon 300,000 men In September 2022 (for the first time since World War II) has shocked and baffled to the nation, according to the polls. Hundreds of thousands of men had already fled from the country when the war began, threatening with Sur Sound the image of normality cultivated by Putin.

Since then, the government has tried to postpone what more possible another round of mobilizations. Instead, incentives have promoted financial and legal to attract the front as volunteers to convicts, Debors, immigrants and other vulnerable social groups. It has also begun to strictly enforce mandatory military service for young men, previously Laxo, in the country.

In a publication published in the application of Telegram messaging on February 18, a Russian military blogger for war cited An anonymous military source that claimed that since October, the Russian forces They had suffered 16,000 "irreplaceable" human losses, as well as that of 300 armored vehicles in the assault to Avdiivka. The Ukrainian forces had suffered between 5,000 and 7,000 irreplaceable human losses in battle, The blogger Andrei Morozov wrote.

These statements could not be verified in a form independent.

Center for Strategic and International Studies TRANSCRIPT Event “Ukraine in the Balance: A Battlefield Update on the War in Ukraine” DATE Thursday, February 22, 2024 at 1:00 p.m. ET

Center for Strategic and International Studies

TRANSCRIPTION

Event

“Ukraine in the balance: an update of the field of battle

In Ukraine "

DATE

Thursday, February 22, 2024 at 1:00 p.m. hour from the east

HIGHLIGHTING

El Honorable Michael Vickers

Former Deputy Secretary of Defense for Intelligence

CSIS experts

Seth Jones

Senior Vice President; Harold Brown chair; and director, International Security Program,

CSIS

Eliot A. Cohen

Arleight A. Burke Strategy Chair, CSIS

Emily Harding

Director, Intelligence Program, National Security and technology and deputy director,

International Security Program, CSIS

Seth G. Jones:

welcome to Center for Strategic and International Studies. My name is Seth Jones. Am the director of the International Security Program. It has been two years since The Russians invaded Ukraine.

We are here for discuss a range of military, intelligence, political and other issues Type on invasion, the state of war. And Eliot Cohen accompanies me. Eliot is the president of Arleight Burke in CSIS, former advisor of the United States Department of State and author of several books. Emily Harding, National Intelligence Director Security and Technology Program, and deputy director of the International Institute Security Program in CSIS. Also previously in the CIA, the National Security Service, thus as the Select Senate Intelligence Committee. And the honorable Mike Vickers, former Deputy Secretary of Defense for Intelligence, Undersecretary of Operations Specials, former green beret, official CIA operations.

But the most Important, the author of the recently published memories, “By All Means Available ”of Knopf, which was ... which is a great book. Mike, thanks for doing that. And we have had - we have had a session on that as good. Let me Start: if we could open the battlefield map. This is at the beginning of this month. We get out of the United Kingdom Ministry of Defense, Defense Intelligence. And what I wanted to do is remind everyone where we have come of. So you can't see it on the map itself, but you visualize it after Russian initial attacks on at least five axes did control the territory, some of which we can see here. They also tried to push down from Belarus and parts of Russia to take kyiv, in what They failed. Járkov City, which, as you can see, is not under Russian control, in which they failed. Then we saw multiple phases in which the Ukrainians They could effectively resume part of this territory, here in Kharkiv, with an offensive operation.

Year After we saw the Russians resume territory, even in the south, in Kherson. And where we are now they are a couple of things. Recently we have seen The Russians resume Avdiivka. I would say they are lit. The offensive. Have Military initiative at this time. They have not recovered much territory. We will talk about the details in a moment. And we have also seen a lot Activity, Ukrainians point to Russian ships, infrastructure in Crimea and In the Black Sea and its surroundings .

So, with that Brief general description, a little where we have arrived, Eliot, wanted go to you first and ask how to characterize this stage of the War at this time.

Eliot A. Cohen:

Well I think We have passed through three phases . The first phase, obviously l to Russian invasion and The successful Ukrainian defense . But keep in mind than during that phase could reach the doors of kyiv, get a large part of the area Around Kharkiv, and in fact they could take Kherson and overcome The Dnieper.

You saw a second phase, which was a Ukrainian counteroffensive, which was really notably successful. Led to them back from Kyiv. The Russians ended backing down. The cleaning of the area around Kharkiv ended, some minor advances in areas around Slavyansk. They resumed the city of Kherson.

And now you are in The third phase, that it has been for some time, that It has consisted of A series of attacks and counterattacks. Russian attack a Bakhmut, that They finally took at a terrible price. A Ukrainian offensive. I wouldn't call it A counteroffensive, that was: he achieved minor successes, but not much; l At initiative Pasa again at the hands of the Russians since they have taken Avdiivka, again, at terribly high costs .

This is a phase positional war. I think it is a mistake to talk about it as a point of death, That is how some people talk about it. It is positional war that seems quite familiar to military historians where the initiative changes round trip, but where there is a lot of adaptation and innovation and change with the initiative going and coming .

And we don't know How much this positional phase can last. it can last a good time.

The other point that I think it is important to highlight is that it is easy become obsessed with the field campaign , which has different parts because it is one - We are talking about a very long front line.

In parallel It is carrying out an important naval campaign in which in fact, the Ukrainians have had a remarkable success by doing many damage to the sea fleet Black saving, of course, his flagship, but I also believe that five from nine of his landing boats, effectively retreating to Russians to some extent beyond the Crimean Peninsula, thus releasing the Maritime routes They have been able to export cereals, even further to, where The Russians have transferred some of its naval bases. So that is another campaign.

Hay a deep campaign of attacks in which Russians are attacking Ukrainian infrastructure . They are attacking cities and Ukrainian power plants and others, in addition to a kind of bombing To sow terror. But with the Ukrainians who also attack Russia to a minor measure, but still with real effect both in missiles of different types but Also special operations forces.

And then it is underway a kind of campaign Information War in which both Russians and Ukrainians are trying to convince the public of different types in the West, in the south Global and other places, who has the advantage, in which direction this is, of What is all this.

I think it is very important to keep in mind that we have - There are multiple campaigns running and each one is in a place different .

Dr. Jones:

So, if we can open the map again, I want concentrate a little, I want to stay on this subject and ask Mike and Emily, looking at the map I want to perfect here. Some of the activities more recent we have seen are here in Avdiivka, that the Russians have Retaking to a big cost, we are listening to victims figures, with a grain of salt, from more than 15,000 to 17,000. Russian casualties, which are huge if that is TRUE.

The Russians also press Bakhmut. How ... mike, For you first? And then Emily, I mean, what is your opinion general about the important or What success has this had for the Russians? Wanna Saying, some people have done a big deal about this. that the Russians are Now to the offensive. They have Avdiivka resumed. But what is your meaning?

The Honorable Michael G. Vickers:

Well, the Russians are investigating in five addresses along this line and Avdiivka, I think they were important symbolic for Putin before his choice because basically, he had not taken Nothing in a year from Bakhmut .

You know, it has some value. But you mentioned the Russian losses He

The exchange relationship was probably the order From five to one, more or less, you know, a fairly small garnish of Ukrainians, as in other places, could contain the Russians for quite a lot time until they ran out of ammunition and personal.

Dr. Jones:

Emily, how important is this Russian success, at least limited?

Emily Harding:

It is difficult to say it was a success for someone. Yes lost 17,000 soldiers - and we should mention that I had to kill one of His pro-kremlin bloggers to cover up the fact that they lost 17,000 soldiers; That is not a success for Putin.

I think what Mike says about a small garnish Ukrainian that resists is absolutely true. There were some sad numbers around 800 to a thousand. Ukrainian troops that could have been captured When they tried to withdraw back and I think there are many criticisms really unfair to the way the Ukrainians went back.

I mean, unless you have been in that situation, it is very difficult for me to say that, they did not execute it as well as They could have done it. But I believe that Ukrainians and Europeans should insist on the fact that yes, the Russians achieved Avdiivka, but what do price?

And look at the rest of that map. Can you pay that cost? Throughout that forehead?

Dr. Cohen:

I think, you know, I would address this for a moment. Believe that part of the Russian intention in all this is, first, to agree with Mike; Putin wanted a symbolic victory of some kind before the elections. Maybe we want to talk a little about how politics Russian affects all this.

But I think what the Russians are, what the Russians They want to do now is convince everyone that the Ukrainian case does not have remedy .

Sra. Harding:

Yeah.

Dr. Cohen:

And that ... you know, and therefore, I think what They would probably do, Ultimately, what I would like to do is submit this to a negotiated agreement that is not permanent, which simply I would prepare them for another offensive somewhere later. So, in One way, I think that is the real objective.

You know, the center of gravity, to use some military jargon, it is. public opinion and the opinion of political elites, particularly in the United States, to persuade them that Ukraine You just can't win; You know, the Russians are relentless, they have resources that are essentially infinite and an infinite will to suffer. Now, I don't think any of those things is true, but I think that is In large part what the Russians want us to create .

Dr. Jones:

Then, Eliot, you mentioned the front. Yeah We could increase only these advance rates, so we gathered this, rates of progress for selective combined weapons offensives between 1914 and 2023 . I mean, I think it is true that the rhythm of progress of the offensive Ukrainian last year It was relatively slow. We evaluate between June 4 and on August 28, 2023, they got about 90 meters per day, which is quite slow.

They faced Russian defenses strongly Fortified with mined fields. So the Russians could also bring Fixed wing aircraft, helicopters and drones against tanks and armored personnel Ukrainians who advance aircraft carrier and even disassembled infantry. But Some people have raised the spectrum that seems: the situation is It looks like World War. So how to respond to that?

Dr. Cohen:

Well, I would respond in several ways.

I would start by saying that it is really a bad Interpretation of what happened in World War I. You know, we, our mental image of World War I comes from a number of films in which it is only a group of snuggled types in a trench , Then they go up to the top and all are dejected by machine guns.

Actually, World War I was a war Very interactive in which both sides are innovating all the time. It was a positional war . And then what happens? And this can be a bit misleading. You know, armies do not move at their average progress rate . It what happens is that they are slow, slow, slow and then, boom, there is a great progress and everything suddenly are going very deep .

This is like German offensives in 1918. It is True for many wars. Even as the first Gulf War, there are, already You know, 40 days of bombing and then, suddenly, the land war opens.

I think the other way in which the analogy of World War I is misleading - and again, it is because people do not Know the history, the reality type of tactical and operational history of the World War I - is the assumption. This is simply a butcher shop and There are many casualties. I don't want to minimize that - and it's absurd and there is no, you know, No particular innovation. Actually, this is a war in which there is A lot of innovation, in which, I would say it in this way. I think the Ukrainians Innovan from the bottom up and the Russians tend to innovate from above down. Russians have a very vertical command system, so they can be flexible. and learn and so on.

Ukrainians are a free society, so there is Many guys with interesting ideas that come out and try things and experiment. Both ways to do so have their advantages and disadvantages. But what It is certainly not, a, it is not static; And B, it is not a conflict in which only There are people hitting their heads. others without a genuine guy from Innovation and improvement by any of the sides.

Then it exists - and what that means, ultimately instance, is that there is the potential for, you know, serious instability that goes from one place to another at any time, but certainly during the Next year or so. You know, we should not assume that this will remain like this Forever, because it won't be so.

Dr. Jones:

So Mike, have you seen big surprises until now? Honorable.

Vickers:

First, allow me to agree with Eliot about The deceitful parallels of the First World War. An area where I think There is a bit of similarity is that It also has attributes of a war of relative industrial capacity and the ability to stay societies until you get the advances that Eliot spoke and the continuous innovation.

So the big surprises are simple. Really There are two.

One, how bad the Russian army has done, especially at the beginning of stages but even the last year, of this war of Position, Eliot spoke. AND You know, wear fight, have suffered losses much older and simply, you know, I have not had a good performance from a Military perspective The other side of the situation is how good The Ukrainians have done. Not only in defending its territory from the beginning, but then recovering it. And Járkov and Kherson, as Eliot mentioned, and Some of the innovations. You know, for a military without army, sinking Much of the Black Sea fleet, taking part of the fight in territory Russian also last week. Drushed, you already know, seven Russian airplanes. That It has been very good. I wish there would be bigger surprises. There are two in particular me keep in mind. First, if the clock that the United States could not go back persecuted. an incremental strategy. I think the Ukrainians would be a lot better if we had been bolder from the beginning.

Dr. Jones

With what? Long -range rockets or?

Honorable. Vickers:

Long -range projectiles, a variety of defenses aerial, a variety of things that could have put the things we are Doing now, you know, we should have started a couple of years ago and We made them more in all areas. And then him

The second is the decrease in support in states Joined . I wish I could tell me that so many, particularly in the Republican party, now they are becoming against war and help Ukrainian can be in danger. But it is not a surprise. But it is certainly tragic.

Dr. Jones:

Well, that's a good transition for Emily. As Would you value the American spare, including debates in Congress? And of fact, before your answer, I just want to mention something that states United has provided so far. Then we can go to the maps. Around of 2 million bullets of 155 millimeters, 2,000- in addition to Stingers, Javelins and Around 31 Abrams tanks. All these are DOD numbers.

You see Bradley Combat vehicles, Obuses, Himars, a Patriot battery, Nasam, attack. Thus we have an idea of what states United has provided since the invasion began. But what has been the American response more recently?

Sra. Harding:

Yes, if this graph is supposed to relieve my frustration, it is only a work species. (Laughs.) I would call him hesitation. The United States response has been hesitant. I think, without charity, I know I could say that we have been to play while Rome burns. We have been debating among us, exactly what a small weapons system It will lead to the top or not now for two years. And I think Mike is right. If we had not been hesitating early onwards, if we had really provided the things we should have provided, I would have been a lot better now.

I would classify the debate within the United States as partially of self -procession .

There is a cube of that. And then partially self -centered. And the autodisuasion piece is this constant to convince ourselves of that if we provide the next system or additional capacity, then that will be what that tilts Russia to expand the conflict. It simply has not happened. Russia as interested as we are restricted to Ukraine. AND the more that we allow them to continue advancing without retreating, the most will press. Russia is a thug. They respond to force.

The egocentric piece is this completely debate counterproductive, in which there are people who say, well, why are we sending all these resources to Ukraine? Why do we spend all this money on Ukraine, when we really should leave it here for a fight in the Peaceful? Or we should really be kept here for priorities internal It is simply the wrong way to see it.

First, from a numerical perspective Basic, I think Angus King of Maine has a very good speech about this, the money we spend in Ukraine does not leave the US American defense. It goes to the US companies that send help to Ukraine. The Great majority stay here .

The other part is that it is not this or that. We have done A great job here. In the CSIS, I know that some of our colleagues in Washington have also done so that the types of weapons you need in a fight in the Pacific are very different than the weapons that are needed in a Fight in Ukraine. In addition, we have just seen Japan step forward and accept Provide Ukraine for all kinds of help. And as they pointed out in the press this Tomorrow, they share a common neighbor. Both Japan and Ukraine borders Russia. AND Japan understands that this is not a Europe or a fight in the Pacific. This It is a global message for a thug superpower.

And that's where we also have to think about it.

Dr. Cohen:

Can I participate in this? This is a really table interesting. So you know, order of magnitude, something like 10,000 Jabalinas, that makes sense. That is the anti -tank missile you need. He Abrams tank number. However, or with patriot batteries, that's ridiculous. I mean, and the problem is that we tell ourselves, oh, Well, we have given you, you know, high -end aerial defenses, the Patriots. But a battery? Thirty -one tanks? By the way, we have hundreds of stored abrams tanks. These are Abrams's old model. They are not the that our soldiers use. They're available. They could have gone there a long time. And I think it is reflected as a failure what to think: we have not managed to think with the proper urgency level. I agree with Mike and Emily in that. But we have not managed to think about the correct scale.

Honorable. Vickers: Escala.

Dr. Cohen:

And in part, it has been a long time, actually since Korea, maybe. some parts of Vietnam, but we really have involved in what is a war in which there is the entire time. You know, I think we sometimes do a false dichotomy - and I'm afraid that even some of our military thinkers address it in this way: Between maneuvers and wear. Wear is not so much a strategy; is a War condition You know, I think of -

Dr. Jones:

And nobody wants to be in a wear war.

Dr. Cohen:

But every - but if you are in a real war - yes You are in a real war, you are in a war of wear. You know, I think of, Let's say, 1967, the six -day war, you know. The Israelis lost approximately a quarter of its Air Force. And it is important - or yes You look, say, you know, the Germans crossing France in 1940, they they lost as a fifth of their tanks, and you know, even more percentages High, I think. Think in your Air Force. Simply - If you are in a war It would be against a war with serious opponent - and by the way, it would also happen to us We are going to take

great losses, and that means that you have to think on the right scale. And unfortunately, I think that for our part he has There will have been a systematic failure of thinking about the correct scale, with some exceptions such as 155 millimeters rounds, where finally We are expanding production, something that you already know about.

Dr. Jones:

Then yes. Yeah.

Sra. Harding:

Can I also play that with two fingers? So Because I can listen to the screams from interwebs, batteries Patriot, in reality I understand that due to the shortage of production in that system and because I know many of our partners in the Middle East need them desperately to do things like fighting the hutis, who are shooting against Saudi Arabia. That is a reason, not an excuse. And here it is where speech is inserted on the industrial defense basis and how not We have been pointing enough to personnel who manufacture things like Patriot batteries, there will be a demand for them will continue in the next two years, five years, 10 years, so production increases to satisfy the demand; And although we say for a second, that tomorrow the peace explodes throughout the World, we will continue to comply with those contracts, so please constrain them.

Honorable. Vickers:

Yes. And I would add, you know, as my say Old Chief Bob Gates, you know, you have to win the war you are.

Sra. Harding:

Yeah.

Dr. Jones:

My former boss Mike Vickers also said that. (Laughter.) I want to return to a point, Emily, who did - you raised the perspective of Other countries, including some of our adversaries. I think people can forget or not realize that when it comes to the Russians, you know, the Russians have also spent significant amounts of ammunition in this War too. Then the question, in part - and that goes through drones and - Where do Russians get help? And for those who want to focus or They think we can focus (the United States can only focus on a theater At the same time, so we should really focus on Taiwan, or even alone Israel, or - and that we cannot do that, reality when you look cooperation is that the Chinese have provided significant help to the Russians. And it has been in All areas, not in wholesale weapons systems. But a range of Technology for Russian weapons systems that includes everything from microchips For weapons systems to pieces for ammunition.

North Koreans have provided rockets and ammunition To the Russians. The Iranians have provided the Shahed-136 and other drones. Then we are seeing the Russians receiving a variety of help from The Chinese, of the North Koreans and the Iranians, which makes the United States retain your help at this time is surprising because we have not seen the Chinese in that sense, stop providing assistance to the Russians.

I also wanted to understand your opinion, Emily, about the Europeans and where Europeans are when providing help to Ukraine. There are also - there has also been talk that the Germans They would provide Taurus, for example, which is a greater scope ammunition. which It is your sense where the Europeans are and how useful they have been at the time of Provide help to Ukraine? And then, you know, if you can add something else.

We have heard many criticisms. About Europeans by several politicians about their defense expenditure, including 2 for one hundred of the gross domestic product.

Dr. Jones:

Then yes. Yes. Mrs. Harding: mmm hmm. So, To complement his excellent argument about China, we should not Forget to what extent China has bought cheap Russian fuel, which is keep the Russian economy afloat and allow them to do all the things that are doing. More than saying about that.

But when it comes to Europeans, you know, I passed The first year of this war reassuring European allies that The United States is in this for the long term, which Biden has said that we are In this in the long term.

The Russians are an old enemy. We understand that this goes to be important not only for the security of Ukraine but also for the Europe's security. Yes, there is talk of extremes about people, you know, that They talk about their support to Ukraine. But those are the ends of the bell curve. They were in this long term. And then, after a year passed, some of Those bell curved voices at the end obtained a little stronger and a Little more central and then I found myself saying it will be fine. It's going to be OK. People like to add political points. But they will recover.

Now I find myself in the situation of having to look To Europeans in the face and say: I really don't know what will happen to the current Help package. I still have hope that the camera enters reason and approves it because it is of vital importance for security in many ways.

It can be good for Ukraine and also for states United at the same time.

But I think Europeans are really starting to Get difficult questions about themselves: how do you see security European without the presence of the United States? as?

The unfortunate comments of former president Trump The other day about

I think NATO really shook them in a way which is difficult to ignore and are starting to look at things from production of defense until the end and through, you know, communications with each other.

We are seeing a silent defense production in Some places and a loud defense. production in others. They are so far To be able to do it, right? You know, direct NATO without the United States, but Some very difficult questions are being raised.

And finally I want to point out that some of our colleagues here at the CSIS have done a really good job in NATO and We are working on a project now on whether the 2 percent threshold is really relevant, if there are other ways to measure what should be Really the contributions of NATO and if the 2 percent question is Just a false track.

Dr. Jones:

Yes, frankly, I think it's mainly a track false. I think the subject, at the end of the day - and I have also written about this - is To what extent and how Europeans and high -level war are useful, for example. So that it takes it to aerial capacities, land capacities, Naval capacities, including anti -submarine war. That takes you out of the problem of the percentage. And much more to the capabilities to perform operations.

Dr. Cohen:

Let me not agree with that. I think that, On the one hand, it is important to be able to measure in a way, you know, more Reasonable and militarily relevant operational contributions.

A figure of 2 percent of GDP, which is too much low; I mean, I would say it is shooting at 3 (percent) or -

Dr. Jones:

The United States is closer to ... is in the range 3 percent, right?

Dr. Cohen:

Is politically significant and is a message For the public involved and for the governments involved we expect that they put important resources against their own defense and not put excuses and Saying, well, we are hosts your forces, that is also a contribution.

You can't ... I don't think we can ignore your Psychological dimension. I wanted to add, if I am allowed, two more things. One is American production. It is absolutely fundamental because we have the greatest Military industry and despite my previous scathing criticisms, we can Expand things and get them on top. But it is also fundamental because We provide leadership and central focus type for this. These are two - There are two types of industrial coalition competitors here. You mentioned one, Russia - Iran, China in the background with components and things, Korea del North.

With us are the Europeans, obviously, with states Joined. But, you know, South Koreans play a role and Japanese play a role and the United States is critical for that. So, Yes ... you know, and the South Koreans sell us 155 (- millimeters) so that later we can give ours to the Ukrainians; Indeed part of the game. We have to be in ESO center.

Now, I think it's important because ... I mean, I think we are tending to be quite critical, and appropriately, With our own government. Actually, the Russians are found in a way different in a world of pain.

They are ... you know, they are in a state of mobilization. It is not clear that

have really been able to increase military production of a tremendously significant way. They still fight with production of advanced pieces. of military team. You know, for example, they have had this ARMATA T-14. tank they have been talking about for years. It's supposed to be incredible. system. They have had problems implementing it. Have had problems get it to occur. Your fossil fuel income has gone decreasing. Yes, the Chinese buy that oil. The Chinese are good merchants. And then they understand that. Oil is cheap and they ... You know, they don't have the same pipelines and things. how that.

So I think, you know, the Russians - the same fact that North Koreans have to depend for 152 millimeter projectiles, They have as a caliber 30 percentage of failure, he tells you something about their Military industry So, you know, we should remind ourselves That if we, if the United States is in the center, we propose it and We keep the feet of our European allies to the fire, we can easily overcome these types both in quantity and quality, safe, but I would say that even in quantitative terms. But there must be a lot of energy policy placed. And unfortunately I don't see that.

Dr. Jones:

So, returning to its European point, yes, it is important to spend more on the Ministry of Defense. That 2 percent threshold In a certain sense, it simply highlights that. But at the end of the day, I think It is also important how they are spending their money. So if we can to achieve this. I'm going to go with Mike in a second with a question. But if We could show the image here. I just want people to see here. This is one of the Iranian drones, the Shahed. 136. This was shot down in kyiv, And now he is in possession of Ukrainians. You can also see here what it is of an Iranian drone. And here this Iranian flag is on the side. So this us Give an idea of some of the other countries that have been providing assistance To the Russians.

What takes me, Mike, to the Russians. That is, your Russian military evaluation. You already talked a little about this, but what do you have? Good made, in your sense? Where has you fought? And are we seeing some? Evolution of the Russian concept of operations? They used more air than had in the past in the offensive of Avdiivka. What does that mean?

Honorable. Vickers:

So where the Russians have done the best They can really be in this position where they have had an advantage of Artillery and an advantage. And then those two things - and, in addition, The nine months, essentially, they were given to dig, prepare, put fields Mined and other things that made the Ukrainian summer offensive of the year past was very problematic. That, and the lack of aerial power of the Ukrainians. You know, we essentially ask the Ukrainians to fight a war from a so that the US army or the western military never They would do. And you know, you just can't win that way. That is, it is military negligence.

So that's where they have done better. They have done what worse they have been able to in the integrated field of combined weapons operations, Aeroterres operations. And this is something we have seen with the Russian Army In the Russian-Georgian war. They thought they had plans to fix these Things, you know, of the lessons learned. They have not really done a good job. And you know, if everything seems to have worsened as the scale has increased. I mean, his great advantage at this time is really in the resources. And it may be more fragile than people think.

Dr. Jones:

So, if we could open the slide, only To emphasize what Mike noticed. Can

Look, this is ... this was last year. But we can See some of the Russian positions of positions. The trenches that raised Here, the dragon's teeth. These are multiple rows of dragon teeth. You can't see it here because it is buried, but the mined fields, the Anti -tanks that have used, the mortar locations and locations of weapons they have had. They had time during last year's offensive To strengthen some of these defenses. measures. What about Russian air?

Honorable. Vickers:

Yes, Russian air, you know, it has been based mainly in unmanned aerial missiles and vehicles Strategic against populated centers. You know, and it certainly had some success in that. In terms of aerial power on the battlefield, during the offensive Ukrainian used attack helicopters reasonably well to limit Ukrainian penetrations. Fixed wing aircraft have not done much. You You know played a role in Avdiivka towards the end, when the Ukrainian army I was withdrawing under pressure -

Dr. Jones:

And I didn't have many Earth-Aire missiles.

Honorable. Vickers:

And had no earth-Aire missiles. But mainly it stayed behind the lines and planning pumps that They can enter and achieve objectives. And then it has not been a great player. You know, Russian doctrine integrates air with armies in the field, doing to the upper army. A little different from our approach.

I would also add that, you know, its operational advantages are

One thing. What the Russians really tell for winning the war is

essentially knocking out the allies of Ukraine. Basically cutting international support. You know, Eliot talked about this and Emily He talked about political problems in Congress. But you know, that's his theory. of the victory, is that if the aid is cut, they will have a chance better.

Dr. Jones:

Well, because they also receive help. So he Balance of power changes dramatically.

Honorable. Vickers:

Yes, they also receive help. The balance of Power changes, exactly.

Sra. Harding:

This is one of those self -complicated prophecies of those that spoke at the beginning. What is the message that Russians want Let's absorb? that Ukraine cannot win, so we should withdraw the support. And that idea that this is going to be totally self -fulfilled, which once we accept The Russian policy of line then we go back, which makes it true, I think that It is what we have to protect at all costs.

Honorable. Vickers:

I think Lenin called them useful idiots.

Dr. Cohen:

Well, and in a way it is already happening. Wanna Say, even put aside Tucker Carlson, you know, you look at Senator Vance Ohio. I mean, that's ... is saying what Russians would like to say. that there is no way that Ukrainians can win, so Let's be realistic and stop helping them.

Dr. Jones:

Well, Emily, the Russians have also been active in Many other areas. We have seen Navalny face death. We have seen to a Ukrainian deserter probably killed in Spain. What else do you have? I mean, what are you doing with what the Russians are doing now in various fields?

Sra. Harding:

I mean, they get paid in a way that It seems quite surprising. What is clear: Navalny did not fall dead because own will in a Russian prison. I know in my bones as sure as I'm sitting here, and I didn't even have to do it. Be on the floor with him. We will discover it at some point in the future that was in fact killed, and it was Killed at a certain time for a certain reason. The fact that Putin It has allowed it just before Munich the conference is quite interesting. That came out almost at the same time that some news arose about some New Russian capabilities potentially being in space, I think it is very interesting.

And it is a quite bold message that we are in the second anniversary of this war and its number one political critic, feels that You can eliminate with little or no repair. And I think Europeans are Analyzing that message. In a way, does anyone know enough naive to think that Navalny was going out of prison and becoming the Future leader of Russia? No, Putin was never going to allow that to happen. But the fact that he did it in the way he did. I think it was a message Very scary for Europeans. And I wish we also arrived over there.

Honorable. Vickers:

And the moment It is: not only did not die for natural causes, hence they will not release the body until they have disinfected enough, but also the moment is not accidental. Is designed to be right on our face, let's say: we can Hcer this and what are you going to do about it?

Sra. Harding:

What we do about it? What are we doing about?

Dr. Jones:

So, While you look at the year 2024, Emily, indications and warnings, what We should look for an idea of how things are going?

Sra. Harding:

Yes. So it's When I take away my indignant politician and put my hat of Impartial analyst, or at least I do my best to do it. If you see The linear analysis of where this conflict is directed, we must think that Russia He will try to take advantage of his advantage in men and possibly power of fire, although we have an intense debate about who will have the advantage in firepower. But they continue to throw metal and people in the problem.

You have to think that Ukraine will be trapped in this defensive position for at least next year, while trying to discover Some fundamental things and a reassessment of the strategy. So, Looking, you know, what are you doing? To gather the labor you need to face To the Russians? What do you do with mandatory military service or not? What do you do to Try to obtain this hodgepodge of different materials they have and combine it in an effective and coherent combat force. But that's really Inherent to, we are sitting almost still while we try to solve this and Wait for any type of Russian offense like the one we saw in Avdiivka.

So what would that evaluation change? Those who The evaluations of the Ukrainian side would change, I think they are much more Probable that the big ones, changes on the Russian side. So I'll review them first.

The first option is that the United States approves the Help package; Europeans do not use that as an opportunity to say "UF" and go back to what they have been. In doing so, they also advance with a huge amount of help; that Ukraine continues to carry the fight to Russians We were talking about surprises before. One of my surprises is the little that the Russian population has really felt the impact of this conflict. If that Change, if we find a way to make the Russian population understand the Costs of this conflict. to them in their places of origin. And then, if Ukraine Find a way of choosing subaters differently. I mean, me give in to military analysts in the room, who would know exactly how it would be seen, but they find ways to focus on a particular area and achieve progress there, could see that changing that scenario I proposed to 2024.

On the Russian side, these are much more likely issues And high impact, could there be roller troops riots? We saw what Unpleasant with the Wagner group. You know, could something like this happen again On a smaller scale along the Russian front lines? Is there one possibility? That at some point in 2025 there will be a fall in the Russian production of ammunition? I think that would change the rules of the game to the conflict if it were really true and if China had not come to save them. And then the real black swan is that something arises from the murder from Navalny, that really becomes some kind of internal disturbance Within Russia that attracts Putin's attention to return to internal problems Russians more than continue the war in Ukraine. You know, the fighter for the Freedom in me really expects that to happen, but I don't see many indications that this can be the way. We go

Dr. Jones:

So, Eliot, I know you have written about it, if we can find photography. of the New Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. what are your options As we look at the course of 2024? I mean, some of this is You will clearly defend the Russian forces, but what are your options? in staying in the fight?

Dr. Cohen:

Well I think You are probably thinking of some very mundane things. Things like: how Can I simply sustain strength? How can I rotate tired troops? You know, how ... how do I train not only the new troops but also to the new troops as individuals? - Do you know, the Ukrainians have not been so intense as we would be in individual troops training, but in reality what is probably even the most important thing at this time is vitally important. But upper level training of units of Battalions/brigades, training of older states, I think there is much of that. They are thinking clearly: they have created this new command for aerial systems Not beed, get such things to stand up. And I think they - You know, they want to deliberately - the reason why they have clung to Avdiivka because it has some political meaning for them. But I think, as in Bakhmut, who decided that the Russians really bleed, because I think they understand (not everyone in the West do it: that resources Russia are not infinite and that if the Army Dustusia is suffering losses Very large, even among young officers and others. ignition: they will have problems to perform any type of maneuver important operation only because they will not have the officers who can carry out…. Then I think There is that. I think absorbing the new technology that get. Those are going to be their concerns to 2024, in addition to processing Other campaigns we have talked about.

I mean, you know, that naval campaign has been Extremely successful and I think they will want to continue with it. The attack campaign deep, too. And then I suspect that They will be thinking a lot about what will happen in 2025, and he will be thinking a lot in this. About it. So I suspect that this is a year in which they will be in great extent in the positional struggle, trying to prepare for what could be the year of the decision, 2025 . But it is war, so things will happen Unexpected . They may face a maneuvering war (or movements?) That They expected or did not want at a given time. Well, it will depend on what happens Also on the Russian side.

Honorable. Vickers:

And we can help you by approving this aid bill.

Dr. Cohen:

Absolutely.

Honorable. Vickers:

But also, instead of simply considering giving Attack or long range weapons to Ukrainians, such as the missile system Army tactics and German Taurus of our two governments, giving them to they. And then, you know, it is possible that the Kerch bridge does not remain in foot for a long time .

Dr. Cohen:

And that really ... You know, just to emphasize that point, you know, when we have given the Ukrainian weapons of greater reach like the Himars or even ... we gave them, how are you 20 Atacms? They know how to use those things very effectively against vulnerable areas in the Russian rear: its logistics nodes, command and Control, barracks, things like that. And when that is done, the Russian ability to continue these offensives in places like Avdiivka. Therefore, it is a capacity of critical importance. And if we eliminate the Kerch bridge, they will have other ways to take things to Crimea, but it is a lot more difficult. And that is what we should be doing .

Dr. Jones:

I frequently remember the television program American “Macgyver ”By observing how Ukrainians have been Innovatives in how they have even used harpoons in the rear of trucks , For example; the way they have used some of their - and if we could show This here - some of its FPV, drones, or tied different types of improvised explosive devices, throwing themselves on Russian soldiers. They have been quite innovative . So, the last question for Mike and Emily is: Could you give us an idea, particularly to the American audience, of what What is at stake here? I mean, if you even look at a red team, if you look A Russian victory here, a Russian success, even a significant advance in the Battlefield, what would be the implications? And in more terms general, how important this is for the United States and how they should Think of Americans about it?

Honorable. Vickers:

Well, I think the first thing is the advanced defense of Europe. You know, we can talk about democracy, and this is the whitest war and black that can be found in moral terms. But it is also important For the defense of Europe, and Europe is still very important for states United in its long -term competition with China and Russia . And you know, there would be more threats to Europe if Russia won, and could also carry some time. And we would also have, you know, maybe a weakening of the European resolution, followed by a weakening of the US resolution. You know, as Eliot said, we tend to lead these things. And it is very important Let us do it. And then I think it is also a global problem. It is not just a European issue Then send messages to the evils everywhere. But, now You know, China is watching this closely, as to what happens there. And then their calculations on Taiwan will be affected by the result of This war .

Sra. Harding:

Yes, I would love to try to draw a straight line from what That is happening in Ukraine until, you know, someone's wallet in Kansas . It is a little long trip, but be patient. If you think about the way in which the United States operates on the world stage, we have deliveries Just in time on Walmart shelves. We have supply chains that They cover everyone. And all these things are possible because the United States and His allies have attached to a world system that tries to respect the State of law and that has predictable economic consequences for certain things that They happen . What Putin has done with his invasion of Ukraine that is to say: I don't None of that imports. I want the world system to be reaped in the way that I like it. I want to show that the UN makes no sense, that the United States It is weak, that American democracy is not as good as it seems. AND I want the United States to fight internally, alone, against yourself, instead to use its vast global power to guarantee a safer world and prosperous. The Chinese saw that and said: we like that idea. What we want It is a world that is safe for Chinese companies. We want to manage The world as we believe should be managed. We don't care about freedoms personal We do not care democracy. What matters to us is to make money For us and for our business. So we also agree with That as a plan. Let's see how we can alter this global system in our favor. To do

PANNELDIC Education rally, Friday 8/3 Day of the passage of the law on private universities.

All at 12 in the Propylaea.

WILLING THE ROADS OF Athens.

Do not pass the Pierakkaki law

"24 -year -old American soldier set fire outside the Israeli embassy in Washington ..."

"My name is Aaron Busnell. I am an active member of the US Air Force and I will no longer be a genocide complicit. I am going to subsidize an extreme protest act, but compared to what they are experiencing People in Palestine , it's not extreme at all ... ". In these words, on February 25, 2024, 24 -year -old American soldier Aaron Busnell set fire outside the Israeli embassy in Washington shouting "freedom in Palestine". The day after, succumbing to his wounds, he left his last breath in the hospital. It is striking that while he was wrapped in flames, a police officer of the Israeli Embassy guard, he was marking him with a gun, while his colleague screaming "I don't need weapons, I need fire extinguishers!"

24 -year -old Aaron, the "human man", has served in the US Armed Forces for almost four years. He had graduated from basic education "first in class" and according to the first testimonies of friends and acquaintances was "social, gentle, cheerful and positive", which denies any attempts to attribute his act to a mental disorder.

Also, almost three months ago, on December 1, 2023, a woman wrapped in the Palestinian flag set fire outside the Israeli consulate in Atlanta, USA and was taken to hospital with serious injuries.

How much, such incidents have happened around the world, without being able to penetrate the law of the silence of international media?

Acts of despair or heroic acts of protest? In any case, the crime that takes place in Gaza since October 7, the genocide of the Palestinian people who have so far led to over 30,000 dead, with over half of being young children, the slow and excruciating death of hundreds daily by daily Food, water and medicine shortages, the constant bombings that have turned the country into a skull, cannot be silenced. Not even the popular anger. Millions of protesters daily in all lengths and widths of the planet, even in the great metropolises of capitalism, fill the streets for the slaughter.

All of these acts of protest, from young Aaron's self -identification to the millions of protesters create, but also show, the serious tricks that the genocide in Gaza provokes inside the imperialist states of the West. Terrrps that were also shown in their "reluctance" (except for other reasons) to join the US Naval Enterprise in the US in the Red Sea. A company that, despite the initial statements of the US Minister of National Defense on 20 participating countries, met the objections of France, Spain, Denmark, Australia and Italy.

Now stop the genocide of the Palestinian people!

Freedom in Palestine!

Op.

Card type from her meeting against at trade union and policies prosecutions

Thursday 21/3, 18:30 - Concentration on primary school THEATER PIRAEUS

At the new meeting besides the representatives they had attended and agreed to the previous -Thursday 22/2- (Resistance section Subversion, municipal form of "disobedient Korydallos", policy organization Red Thread, Society Employee Book - Paper - Media Attica, Popular Resistance Piraeus, Racing Intervention Γ΄ Western Athens, Class Course and racing HEI movements), supported representatives from the educational group Antitradia of Education, the Nea Smyrni - Kallithea racing intervention - Moschato, ORMA (Organizing Fighter Anti -Fascism) and Labor Alliance to the west.

All the attendees they agreed that:

Ø Teachers' persecutions for trade union and politics Action is a very serious issue and linked to the general direction of terrorism and repression of fighters, clubs and movements.

Ø The issue not concerns only their teachers, but I will must to open and to linked And with other struggling pieces that are hit and hit. Typical examples The dismissal of Administrative Officer of the NCSR, the persecution of PENEN trade unionists with Category of blocking ships in day of a strike, but also all the repression grid that wants to bend the student and folk mobilizations.

Ø This issue must be answered with terms of mass movement and mobilization, with the aim of taking back all the persecutions.

For everyone them their reasons It was decided:

ü To take a gathering and demonstration on Thursday 21/3 at 18:30 in the square Municipal Theater, in Piraeus, which has been the focus of persecution lately. By propagandizing her In all places (schools, associations, neighborhoods etc) for be massive.

ü To out poster and propagandistic material for the issue.

ü To organized interview type her Friday 15/3 for her wider hearsay of mobilization and initiative.

ü To exist coordination and common action with others corresponding initiative and movements, so that the issue is raised in more massive terms.

ü To Happen event at 16/4 in the University Piraeus.

For the best organization of all of the above but also the enrichment of actions Renewed the appointment with a new open meeting on Tuesday 12/3 at 18:30 at offices of ELME Piraeus (3 ^The GEL Piraeus, Mavromichali 14).

We call each Collectivity-Prophevity-Moving and fighter to We tune in and to actually To report widely the trade union and policies industry persecution and need to be taken back all.

Trade union Organisations & MOVEMENTS - Collectivity - MOVEMENTS Neighborhood

27/2/2024

There meeting at the Slai Cobas of the #Iostoconlapalestina Committee Lancia 2 days of fighting starting from March 15 - Places and times later

Havingecriminale / Palestinaimmortale

cease fire - stop massacres and genocide

International delegation/internationalist contingent to the Court of Justice of the Hague and in the occupied territories

away the Italian imperialist troops from the Red Sea /on the side of the Huthi rebels

Puglia is not a war zone to the G7 in our land

former Ilva / Contract - against the extraordinary administration of the government Meloni, against private, Italian, foreign public masters against Congratità and trade union collaborationism

for workers' autonomy

against layoffs, extraordinary cassaintegration and permanent precariousness for the return to work of the workers of the contract, payment of wages, single contract

against layoffs permanent wages and occupation in steel mill for the return to Cassintegrati factory in AS

For safety and factory environmentalization and remediation and health in the area

Strike and mobilization day 19/April

Committee of struggle (steelworks- Contract. -Cigs as) Taranto

Info/contacts/adhesions WA 3519575628